Potential outcomes following a Tornado
It is difficult to grasp the total devastation and disruption such an event causes to people’s lives, and businesses, unless you experience this yourself. It affects almost all aspects of life, including death or serious injury to people and livestock, displacement of people, damage to business properties, interruption of manufacturing, severely strained health care and rescue services, power outages, availability of groceries, food and water. Severe disruption and damage can also occur to communication systems and infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, resulting in the potential delay of getting aid and rescue teams to the affected areas.
Tornados usually start over land and are created when high-volume winds mix warm and moist air with dry cold air.
The duration of tornados, and the distance they travel varies. Most last less than ten minutes and travel five to ten kilometres before dissipating. In extreme cases, however, they can last several hours and cross distances over 150km.
Most damage caused by tornados is usually the result of strong winds and hail.
Tornados in South Africa
One might think that South Africa is not affected by many tornados, but this is not true when you consider that meteorologists use the generic terminology of tropical cyclones for hurricanes and tornados.
In fact, consider the following:
- South Africa experienced tornados as far back as 1905, from available records, and continues to experience them, noting the recent tornado which occurred in Tongaat, Kwa-Zulu Natal on the 3rd of June 2024.
- Most provinces in South Africa are affected by tornados. These extreme weather events have occurred in rural and urban areas throughout the country resulting in damage to property and injury and death to people and livestock.
Critical risks for Insurers:
- Wind damage to household property and business assets.
- Associated business interruption, following wind/tornado damage.
- Loss of life and Injury to people.
- Injury to and death of livestock.
- Flash floods and hail damage.
- Damage to crops.
- Damage to motor vehicles.
- Damage to infrastructure and communications networks.
The recent tornado that devastated parts of Tongaat resulted in loss of life of 12 people and damage to more than 7000 homes; damage to roads, bridges, schools, community halls, electricity and communications infrastructure at an estimated cost of ZAR1.3 billion according to the KZN Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs department.
The South African Weather Services concluded the Tongaat tornado was rated EF3 (Enhanced Fujitsa) scale, with wind speeds in the range of 225 to 265km/h.
Frequency and Severity of Tornados
It is difficult to predict the frequency of Tornados in South Africa. South Africa does not have a Tornado season as such. What (Re)Insurers know for certain is the increasing frequency of these events in South Africa. This has resulted in an enhanced focus by underwriters regarding potential increased exposure to losses resulting from such events.
Risk Mitigation
Tornados are still extremely difficult to forecast. Meteorologists have become a lot better at forecasting the conditions that make tornados more likely. Predicting exactly which thunderstorms will produce a tornado and when continues to be a challenge.
Ongoing scientific research by meteorologists may help in modelling specific scenarios that may lead to more accurate predictions of tornados.
Consideration for (Re)Insurers
South Africa has experienced major storms, strong winds and flooding events recently, especially in the last two years, with significantly increased frequency.
The risks associated with providing storm cover under non-life insurance policies for both private residences and businesses has become an increased focus for insurers. As the risk landscape evolves, so too will underwriters considerations in respect of their risk exposures to such extreme events.
In summary, the increased frequency and severity of tornados and extreme weather events in South Africa has challenged the way that underwriters view their risk exposure to such events.
Article written by Deen Pillay – Portfolio Manager – Emerald Risk Transfer
